John McCain suspends campaign to 'work on the economy', asks Obama to do likewise...

The most desperate election stunt since William Hague's baseball camp this one. I think I now agree with Arnold Schwarzenegger that most American politicians are 'girlie men' these days. After all, during the 1944 election campaign, FDR had tiny little things like the Battle of Normandy, Invasion of Guam and the largest naval battle in history to worry about, but didn't feel the need to ask Thomas Dewey to suspend his campaign.

Let's see a party in government screws up the economy, and in the middle of an election campaign they're likely to lose, their lead candidate asks the opposition to stop campaigning to get them out... er, and this is the bloke who wants to teach the Iraqis about democracy?

If Gordon Brown wants to have a general election in 2007, he really needs to go and see the Queen tomorrow. Why? Tomorrow is the last day he can call an election for October 25th. The clocks go back in the early hours of October 28th, and the days drop fast at this time of year anyway. If he leaves the general election until November, he's going to be asking activists, and Labour voters, to come out on some very dark evenings, as the following table of sunset times indicates:

	Cardiff	London	Birmingham	Newcastle	Glasgow	Aberdeen	Belfast
25th October	6.00 pm	5.47 pm	5.52 pm	5.45 pm	5.54 pm	5.41 pm	6.04 pm
1st November	4.47 pm	4.34 pm	4.39 pm	4.30 pm	4.38 pm	4.25 pm	4.49 pm
8th November	4.35 pm	4.22 pm	4.26 pm	4.16 pm	4.23 pm	4.10 pm	4.35 pm
15th November	4.24 pm	4.12 pm	4.15 pm	4.04 pm	4.10 pm	3.56 pm	4.23 pm
22nd November	4.15 pm	4.03 pm	4.06 pm	3.53 pm	3.59 pm	3.44 pm	4.13 pm

For all sorts of personal and political reasons, a 25th October elections is the last thing I need. But if Gordon wants to have a triumphal coronation, that's the date he needs to call the election for. I'm not Moses the Lawgiver, nor do I have a crystal ball but there are all sorts of good reasons for not having a general election any later in the year.

Jamaica goes to the polls today in the shadow of Hurricane Dean - whose violent passage over the island nation actually delayed polling by eight days.

Jamaican politics have traditionally been bitter, two party, contests between the left-wing People's National Party, now in power since 1989, and the Jamaica Labour Party, which confusingly leans to the right of the political spectrum. The PNP is lead by Jamaica's first woman Prime Minister, Portia Simpson-Miller, a girl from Kingston's sprawling shanty town suburbs, who is probably Jamaica's first leader to come from outside the narrow confines of the islands plantocracy and squirearchy.

And when I say Jamaica's elections are bitter, I do mean bitter. More than 1,000 people died in political violence in the run-up to the 1980 general election, in a country with a population of barely two million. This year's contest has been much less violent, but with plenty of poison. Simpson-Miller is popular, especially with poorer Jamaicans, and considerably more popular than her party which looks tired, arrogant and corrupt after 18 years in power. Labour have decided to go for the head - attacking Simpson-Miller for being out of her depth as Prime Minister, in spectacularly nasty ads like the following - "Don't Draw Mi Tongue".



This is a high-risk strategy. Attacking a popular leader risks drawing out a sympathy vote, whereas attacking their unpopular party in a 'more in sorrow than in anger' sort of a way is difficult to defend - inevitably the leader has to distance herself from her underlings, and that creates all sorts of problems. Moreover, Simpson-Miller's "don't draw mi tongue" speech was made before she became Prime Minister in response to some pretty snobby, sneering remarks by Labour spokespeople. White or biracial, upper class, Labour spokespeople. In a country where class and racial (yes, between different shades of brown and black) divisions are acute as Jamaica, many poor, black, Jamaicans might well conclude that Portia was making an entirely justified response to the sort of class prejudice they face day and daily; "Sista P" was showing the plantocracy that she wasn't prepared to take any more crap, and was probably silently cheered by many poor Jamaicans who wished they had the opportunity to do the same thing.

The second ad I'm going to link to here, "Nat Changin' No Course" is cleverer, although still fairly negative - it links Portia to her corrupt and incompetent underlings while not suggesting any personal malfeasance on her part, and suggests that 18 years in power have made the PNP arrogant and complacent.



Nasty but focused on real incidents and I suspect fairly effective - much more so than direct personal attacks on the Prime Minister; the constant use of Portia's "Not Changing Course" overdub seems quite catchy; from what I've been reading on Jamaican political blogs it is actually quite catchy as well.

Like all first-past-the-post elections, today's election in Jamaica will be decided by a few thousand voters in a handful of marginal seats. Our final ad is from the knife-edge seat of Central Manchester, a place of grinding rural poverty and a traditional PNP stronghold. However, a long-serving PNP MP has retired and Labour have selected Sally Porteous, and active and effective local councillor who is more popular than here party. Her contest with the PNP's Peter Bunting, a long-term professional politician suffering from his lack of local roots but with a phenomenal local party organisation, could decide Jamaica's political future. This is a slick ad - presents a really positive view of Porteous (the lack of fire cover in the constituency has long been a personal hobby horse of hers), and shows Bunting, briefly, at his worst, and then shows Porteous above all that and only interested in representing the people.



Bunting's little slip about locking down Central Manchester shows how nasty Jamaican politics can be; lest anyone think this is a problem limited to one party, Labour's leader, Bruce Golding, has some extremely dubious gansta friends. This year's election has been more peaceful than any for decades, however, and let's hope for ordinary Jamaicans' sake it represents the start of a trend.

Jamaica leaves Northern Ireland in the shade when it comes to electoral fraud. An electronic voter ID system is being introduced in some marginal constiuencies in the Greater Kingston area for next Monday's general election in response to some particularly egregious examples of vote theft in the past. In 2002, a number of polling stations reported a turn out of over 100%, while the Arthur Wint Basic School in Jamaica's bucolic far west managed a less-than-credible turnout of 805%.

Not a single Ulster Unionist candidate was elected on Stage 1 anywhere. Anywhere.

I'm sure a geographer could do a slightly better job, but here's my best shot at a map of Northern Ireland with each seat in the Assembly representing an MLA. The lines represent "West of the Bann" as usually defined, and the boundary of the four Belfast constituencies.

In West Tyrone, the SDLP managed to turn 1.02 Quotas into no seats. If West Tyrone is the SDLP's Stalingrad, all I can say is that it's as well they weren't involved in the Second World War, or the Wehrmacht would have been washing their boots in the Pacific.

Total dissident Republican vote - 1.2%
Total dissident Unionist vote - 2.2%

Raymond McCord's votes have just been distributed in North Belfast.

Cobain (UUP) now stands at 3415 (+336)
Humphrey (DUP) 3287 (+163)

Looks like Fred is going to hold on.

Other runners still in the race:

Convery (SDLP) 2485 (+218)
Maginness (SDLP) 3099 (+293)
McCausland (DUP) 3764 (+204)

Only Convery’s votes are left to transfer. They’ll put Maginness over the quota and the small number that transfer on will go to Cobain. He’s done it.

Shit. Late night drama.

Fred Cobain says, “Thank you STV for pimping my vote.”

As I see it, the only seats still in play are:

North Belfast - DUP 3 (Humphrey) vs. UUP (Cobain). Odds favour Humphrey. McCord elimination is crucial point.
South Belfast - SDLP 2 (Hanna) vs. SF (Maskey) vs. DUP 2 (Stalford) for two seats. Stalford has a mountain to climb.
Lagan Valley - Alliance (Lunn) vs. DUP 4 (Givan). Odds favour Alliance.
North Down - Alliance (Farry) vs. Green (Wilson) vs. UUP 2 (either Smith or McFarland) vs. DUP 3 (Easton) for three seats. Odds favour Farry, Wilson and McFarlane, although it is very close between McFarlane and Wilson, his running mate.
South Antrim - DUP 3 (Lucas) vs. SDLP (Burns). Odds favour Lucas.
Strangford - DUP 4 (McIlveen or Hamilton) vs. UUP 2 (Carson) vs. SDLP (Boyle). Odds heavily favour the DUP.
Upper Bann - DUP 3 (McCrum) vs. UUP 2 (Savage) vs. SF 2 (Ward). Ward would need a miracle of Unionist non-transferring. Odds favour McCrum, but only slightly.
West Tyrone - SDLP (Deehan) vs Ind (Deeny). The battle of the Omagh doctors will go right to the wire.

Last but not least...

DUP 31.4% 2.20Q
UUP 21.3% 1.49Q
Oth U 3.3% 0.23Q
SF 25.3% 1.77Q
SDLP 12.7% 0.89Q
RSF 0.9% 0.06Q
Green 2.7% 0.19Q
Alliance 1.9% 0.13Q
Cons 0.6% 0.04Q

Awfully hard to call the last seat here. 1 SDLP, 1 SF, 2 DUP and 1 UUP are safe. The last seat is really too close to call between the UUP's George Savage and the DUP's Junior McCrum. How many of anti-Agreement candidate Calvert's 1332 votes will transfer to the DUP? Nationalists not far off three seats here but not quite there yet. Not impossible that Sinn Féin could sneak a second seat if Unionist internal transferring is poor, but it isn't likely.

DUP 34.5% 2.41Q
UUP 20.5% 1.43Q
Oth U 2.3% 0.16Q
Alliance 13.1% 0.92Q
SDLP 11.1% 0.78Q
SF 16.5% 1.16Q
Oth 1.9% 0.13Q

Huge results for Sinn Féin and Alliance. SF clearly gain a seat, and the UUP clearly lose one. The DUP will probably gain a seat, and the SDLP, thanks to their overnomination, probably lose one, although it's going to be awfully tight and the SDLP aren't quite dead yet.

DUP 30.1%
SF 26.2%
SDLP 15.2%
UUP 14.9%
Alliance 5.2%
Others 8.0%

Source RTE.

DUP 50.2% 3.51Q
UUP 18.1% 1.27Q
Oth U 3.3% 0.23Q
All 11.3% 0.79Q
SDLP 8.5% 0.60Q
SF 3.0% 0.21Q
Oth 5.6% 0.39Q

Huge result for Alliance in their most under-pressure seat. Disappointment from the SDLP who must have learned the dangers of over-hyping. Peerless performance from the DUP, awful for the UUP. Most likely DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1. A tightly balanced pair of UUP candidates might have held both seats, but an ill-balanced trio chasing 1.3 Quotas has little chance. Dissidents flop.

DUP 19.5% 1.36Q
UUP 10.8% 0.76Q
UKUP 2.7% 0.19Q
Alliance 0.5% 0.03Q
SDLP 17.5% 1.22Q
SF 47.6% 3.33Q
RSF 1.0% 0.19Q

Another example of a big vote and peerless vote management here. Surprisingly good performance from the UUP means no change of a DUP gain even if their vote wasn't so apallingly balanced. No change.

So much for the SDLP hype about Strangford. We have sweats in Lagan Valley and North Down but it looks like seven seats - Alliance GAIN!!!!.

Gerry McGeough has been arrested by the PaSNI Serious Crimes Unit leaving the Fermanagh count and has been taken to Antrim police station for questioning about serious crimes.

What a day! What a dismal day for the dissoes!

DUP 25.5% 1.78Q
UUP 19.7% 1.38Q
UKUP 0.84% 0.06Q
All 1.12% 0.08Q
SDLP 14.0% 0.98Q
SF 36.3% 2.54Q
Dissident Reps 2.68% 0.19Q

No change beyond the consolidation of the Arlene defection. SDLP now below a quota and must be under long term threat here. This was supposed to be one of the Dissident Republican strongholds. What happened?

Whew! I'm back on track. Difficult to get later count figures, really want to see North Belfast.

DUP 17.0% 1.19Q
UUP 4.3% 0.30Q
Oth U 0.2% 0.01Q
SDLP 37.0% 2.59Q
SF 30.8% 2.16Q
Ind Rep 4.4% 0.31Q
Soc Env All 5.0% 0.35Q

Best dissident Republican performance everywhere but real story here is probably best SDLP result anywhere. DUP top poll and no change, as expected.

DUP 17.7% 1.24Q
UUP 9.7% 0.68Q
Oth U 3.6% 0.25Q
SDLP 31.4% 2.20Q
SF 30.7% 2.15Q
Ind Rep 0.9% 0.07Q
Green 3.5% 0.25Q
Alliance 1.5% 0.01Q
Oth 1.1% 0.08Q

SF breathe down the neck of the SDLP in their heartland. Good result for the Greens. Surprising vote for the UK Independence Party - Reilly holds his personal vote in Kileel. No change likely, the DUP have neither the votes nor the balance to knock out the UUP.

DUP 12.9% 0.91Q
UUP 13.1% 0.92Q
Oth U 5.6% 0.39Q
SDLP 19.8% 1.38Q
SF 42.1% 2.95Q
Ind Rep 4.4% 0.31Q
Green 1.2% 0.08Q
All 0.6% 0.04Q

Respectable performances from Hyland and Berry not enough to stop Sinn Féin holding three with a magisterial performance. SDLP down badly but hold one. UUP and DUP one each. No change.

DUP 21.4% 1.50Q
UUP 8.9% 0.62Q
Deeny 9.1% 0.64Q
UKUP 0.5% 0.04Q
SDLP 14.5% 1.02Q
SF 44.5% 3.11Q
RSF 1.1% 0.08Q

SF 3 and DUP 2, both gaining seats in a strong performance. The 90 votes by which Deeny leads the UUP's Derek Hussey are critical. The SDLP have a quota but too many candidates; are there enough UUP and Sinn Féín transfers there for Deeny? Very hard call, probably just favours the SDLP.

DUP 45.5% 3.18Q
UUP 21.5% 1.51Q
Oth U 2.4% 0.17Q
All 15.8% 1.10Q
SDLP 5.9% 0.41Q
SF 3.9% 0.27Q
Oth 4.7% 0.33Q

DUP 3, UUP 1, Alliance 1. Last seat almost certainly a second UUP runner, but Danny O'Connor might just fluke it despite a significant fall in their vote. Unlikely though.

DUP 34.1% 2.39Q
UUP 23.7% 1.66Q
UKUP 5.9% 0.41Q
Ind Us 4.1% 0.29Q
All 10.2% 0.71Q
Grn 9.3% 0.65Q
SDLP 3.6% 0.25Q
SF 1.3% 0.09Q
Ind 3.9% 0.27Q
Cons 2.8% 0.20Q

2 DUP, 1 UUP safe, 1 Alliance and 1 Green probably safe although both will sweat, probably a second UU but if Bob transfers heavily to the DUP they might nick a third. Odds against it.

Results coming in too fast now.