Not a single Ulster Unionist candidate was elected on Stage 1 anywhere. Anywhere.

I'm sure a geographer could do a slightly better job, but here's my best shot at a map of Northern Ireland with each seat in the Assembly representing an MLA. The lines represent "West of the Bann" as usually defined, and the boundary of the four Belfast constituencies.

In West Tyrone, the SDLP managed to turn 1.02 Quotas into no seats. If West Tyrone is the SDLP's Stalingrad, all I can say is that it's as well they weren't involved in the Second World War, or the Wehrmacht would have been washing their boots in the Pacific.

Total dissident Republican vote - 1.2%
Total dissident Unionist vote - 2.2%

All over bar the shooting, er, I mean shouting.

As I see it, that makes it.

DUP 36
SF 28
UUP 18
SDLP 16
Alliance 7
Green 1
PUP 1
Ind 1

Cabinet will be 4 DUP, 3 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP.

Disastrous election for Unionism, with exactly barely half the seats (55/108). The DUP throw away seats in North Belfast, South Belfast, West Belfast and South Antrim on preventable grounds.

Raymond McCord's votes have just been distributed in North Belfast.

Cobain (UUP) now stands at 3415 (+336)
Humphrey (DUP) 3287 (+163)

Looks like Fred is going to hold on.

Other runners still in the race:

Convery (SDLP) 2485 (+218)
Maginness (SDLP) 3099 (+293)
McCausland (DUP) 3764 (+204)

Only Convery’s votes are left to transfer. They’ll put Maginness over the quota and the small number that transfer on will go to Cobain. He’s done it.

Shit. Late night drama.

Fred Cobain says, “Thank you STV for pimping my vote.”

As I see it, the only seats still in play are:

North Belfast - DUP 3 (Humphrey) vs. UUP (Cobain). Odds favour Humphrey. McCord elimination is crucial point.
South Belfast - SDLP 2 (Hanna) vs. SF (Maskey) vs. DUP 2 (Stalford) for two seats. Stalford has a mountain to climb.
Lagan Valley - Alliance (Lunn) vs. DUP 4 (Givan). Odds favour Alliance.
North Down - Alliance (Farry) vs. Green (Wilson) vs. UUP 2 (either Smith or McFarland) vs. DUP 3 (Easton) for three seats. Odds favour Farry, Wilson and McFarlane, although it is very close between McFarlane and Wilson, his running mate.
South Antrim - DUP 3 (Lucas) vs. SDLP (Burns). Odds favour Lucas.
Strangford - DUP 4 (McIlveen or Hamilton) vs. UUP 2 (Carson) vs. SDLP (Boyle). Odds heavily favour the DUP.
Upper Bann - DUP 3 (McCrum) vs. UUP 2 (Savage) vs. SF 2 (Ward). Ward would need a miracle of Unionist non-transferring. Odds favour McCrum, but only slightly.
West Tyrone - SDLP (Deehan) vs Ind (Deeny). The battle of the Omagh doctors will go right to the wire.

Last but not least...

DUP 31.4% 2.20Q
UUP 21.3% 1.49Q
Oth U 3.3% 0.23Q
SF 25.3% 1.77Q
SDLP 12.7% 0.89Q
RSF 0.9% 0.06Q
Green 2.7% 0.19Q
Alliance 1.9% 0.13Q
Cons 0.6% 0.04Q

Awfully hard to call the last seat here. 1 SDLP, 1 SF, 2 DUP and 1 UUP are safe. The last seat is really too close to call between the UUP's George Savage and the DUP's Junior McCrum. How many of anti-Agreement candidate Calvert's 1332 votes will transfer to the DUP? Nationalists not far off three seats here but not quite there yet. Not impossible that Sinn Féin could sneak a second seat if Unionist internal transferring is poor, but it isn't likely.

DUP 34.5% 2.41Q
UUP 20.5% 1.43Q
Oth U 2.3% 0.16Q
Alliance 13.1% 0.92Q
SDLP 11.1% 0.78Q
SF 16.5% 1.16Q
Oth 1.9% 0.13Q

Huge results for Sinn Féin and Alliance. SF clearly gain a seat, and the UUP clearly lose one. The DUP will probably gain a seat, and the SDLP, thanks to their overnomination, probably lose one, although it's going to be awfully tight and the SDLP aren't quite dead yet.

DUP 30.1%
SF 26.2%
SDLP 15.2%
UUP 14.9%
Alliance 5.2%
Others 8.0%

Source RTE.

DUP 50.2% 3.51Q
UUP 18.1% 1.27Q
Oth U 3.3% 0.23Q
All 11.3% 0.79Q
SDLP 8.5% 0.60Q
SF 3.0% 0.21Q
Oth 5.6% 0.39Q

Huge result for Alliance in their most under-pressure seat. Disappointment from the SDLP who must have learned the dangers of over-hyping. Peerless performance from the DUP, awful for the UUP. Most likely DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1. A tightly balanced pair of UUP candidates might have held both seats, but an ill-balanced trio chasing 1.3 Quotas has little chance. Dissidents flop.

DUP 19.5% 1.36Q
UUP 10.8% 0.76Q
UKUP 2.7% 0.19Q
Alliance 0.5% 0.03Q
SDLP 17.5% 1.22Q
SF 47.6% 3.33Q
RSF 1.0% 0.19Q

Another example of a big vote and peerless vote management here. Surprisingly good performance from the UUP means no change of a DUP gain even if their vote wasn't so apallingly balanced. No change.

So much for the SDLP hype about Strangford. We have sweats in Lagan Valley and North Down but it looks like seven seats - Alliance GAIN!!!!.

Gerry McGeough has been arrested by the PaSNI Serious Crimes Unit leaving the Fermanagh count and has been taken to Antrim police station for questioning about serious crimes.

What a day! What a dismal day for the dissoes!

DUP 25.5% 1.78Q
UUP 19.7% 1.38Q
UKUP 0.84% 0.06Q
All 1.12% 0.08Q
SDLP 14.0% 0.98Q
SF 36.3% 2.54Q
Dissident Reps 2.68% 0.19Q

No change beyond the consolidation of the Arlene defection. SDLP now below a quota and must be under long term threat here. This was supposed to be one of the Dissident Republican strongholds. What happened?

Whew! I'm back on track. Difficult to get later count figures, really want to see North Belfast.

DUP 17.0% 1.19Q
UUP 4.3% 0.30Q
Oth U 0.2% 0.01Q
SDLP 37.0% 2.59Q
SF 30.8% 2.16Q
Ind Rep 4.4% 0.31Q
Soc Env All 5.0% 0.35Q

Best dissident Republican performance everywhere but real story here is probably best SDLP result anywhere. DUP top poll and no change, as expected.

DUP 17.7% 1.24Q
UUP 9.7% 0.68Q
Oth U 3.6% 0.25Q
SDLP 31.4% 2.20Q
SF 30.7% 2.15Q
Ind Rep 0.9% 0.07Q
Green 3.5% 0.25Q
Alliance 1.5% 0.01Q
Oth 1.1% 0.08Q

SF breathe down the neck of the SDLP in their heartland. Good result for the Greens. Surprising vote for the UK Independence Party - Reilly holds his personal vote in Kileel. No change likely, the DUP have neither the votes nor the balance to knock out the UUP.

DUP 12.9% 0.91Q
UUP 13.1% 0.92Q
Oth U 5.6% 0.39Q
SDLP 19.8% 1.38Q
SF 42.1% 2.95Q
Ind Rep 4.4% 0.31Q
Green 1.2% 0.08Q
All 0.6% 0.04Q

Respectable performances from Hyland and Berry not enough to stop Sinn Féin holding three with a magisterial performance. SDLP down badly but hold one. UUP and DUP one each. No change.

DUP 21.4% 1.50Q
UUP 8.9% 0.62Q
Deeny 9.1% 0.64Q
UKUP 0.5% 0.04Q
SDLP 14.5% 1.02Q
SF 44.5% 3.11Q
RSF 1.1% 0.08Q

SF 3 and DUP 2, both gaining seats in a strong performance. The 90 votes by which Deeny leads the UUP's Derek Hussey are critical. The SDLP have a quota but too many candidates; are there enough UUP and Sinn Féín transfers there for Deeny? Very hard call, probably just favours the SDLP.

DUP 45.5% 3.18Q
UUP 21.5% 1.51Q
Oth U 2.4% 0.17Q
All 15.8% 1.10Q
SDLP 5.9% 0.41Q
SF 3.9% 0.27Q
Oth 4.7% 0.33Q

DUP 3, UUP 1, Alliance 1. Last seat almost certainly a second UUP runner, but Danny O'Connor might just fluke it despite a significant fall in their vote. Unlikely though.

DUP 34.1% 2.39Q
UUP 23.7% 1.66Q
UKUP 5.9% 0.41Q
Ind Us 4.1% 0.29Q
All 10.2% 0.71Q
Grn 9.3% 0.65Q
SDLP 3.6% 0.25Q
SF 1.3% 0.09Q
Ind 3.9% 0.27Q
Cons 2.8% 0.20Q

2 DUP, 1 UUP safe, 1 Alliance and 1 Green probably safe although both will sweat, probably a second UU but if Bob transfers heavily to the DUP they might nick a third. Odds against it.

Results coming in too fast now.

DUP 49.0% 3.43Q
UUP 14.3% 1.00Q
Oth U 4.9% 0.34Q
All 2.8% 0.20Q
SDLP 12.2% 0.85Q
SF 15.9% 1.12Q
Ind Rep 0.9% 0.06Q

No change here - 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF. Clear as crystal. SF, Alliance up; DUP as they were; SDLP, UUP down; dissidents humiliated - Cubitt may be their best performer with barely 4%.

DUP 39.8% 2.78Q
UUP 18.5% 1.29Q
Oth U 1.9% 0.13Q
All 4.1% 0.29Q
SDLP 12.8% 0.89Q
SF 20.0% 1.40Q
RSF 1.2% 0.08Q
Oth 1.8% 0.12Q

DUP should pick up a third seat here from the UUP. SDLP and SF one each this time - but SF must harbour long term hopes of second seat.

DUP 10.8% 0.76Q
UUP 1.7% 0.12Q
SDLP 12.2% 0.85Q
SF 69.9% 4.89Q
RSF 1.3% 0.09Q
Oth 4.9% 0.29Q

SF have five in the bag, and the SDLP should edge out the DUP on Workers' Party and People Before Profit transfers. Incredible vote and balancing by Sinn Féín. RSF have been beaten by the Workers' Party and utterly humiliated.