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Samuel F B Morse has a posse
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9th-Jan-2008 01:28 am - Obligatory US presidential meme
morse key, straight key
Mike Gravel is really cute, so that's a result. Dennis Kuchinich? No, I think you must be confusing me with Che Guevara! It's correct that Obama is my favourite of the three mainstream candidates, but that I would probably favour Bill Richardson if he were more viable (and he'd be a great VP), and that I think a Ron Paul presidency would be an interesting experiment, as long as I didn't have to live under it.

75% Mike Gravel
69% Dennis Kucinich
64% Bill Richardson
60% Barack Obama
58% Ron Paul
58% Chris Dodd
57% John Edwards
56% Hillary Clinton
53% Joe Biden
47% John McCain
43% Mike Huckabee
43% Rudy Giuliani
38% Mitt Romney
32% Fred Thompson
31% Tom Tancredo

2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz
9th-Jan-2008 01:05 am - New Hampshire early results
morse key, straight key
10% in. Remember, most of these results from small villages and the countryside.

Hillary, surprisingly in a narrow but significant lead (just over 2%) ahead of Obama. This might well reverse when the big towns come in. Remember, Obama's lead grew and grew as the night went on in Iowa and the bigger towns came in. The operative word is might. This will be fun.

McCain in the high 30s% and with a ~10% lead over Romney. I'd expect this pattern to hold, but there is virtually nothing in from southern NH, near the Massachussets border, and this might erode McCain's lead when it comes in, although I'd doubt it will reverse it.
4th-Jan-2008 02:10 am - Iowa Caucuses
morse key, straight key
Demos have a good results site. A close-to-even three way tie with Hillary seemingly stuck in 3rd place with just over 50% of results in. My instinct is this is bad for Hillary (although she has the resources to take it on the chin), superb for Obama if he can hold that narrow lead and difficult for Edwards, who needed to win here, but he isn't out yet. Both Obama and Edwards now face formidable problems in tackling Hillary's massive lead in many late January and Super Tuesday states.

Republicans: looks like Huckabee has survived fairly vicious attacks from mainstream Republicanism to eke out a clear win over a fractured field. Hard to tell what will happen next on the mainstream side, but Tommy Thompson is clearly toast leaving Huckabee as the standard bearer of the Christian right. If no clear winner emerges, Ron Paul's 11% repeated elsewhere might see him become a kingmaker come convention time. In the unlikely event it gets that far...

May go to bed now, it's late here.

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