After yesterday's genuinely historic Sinn Fein Ard Fheis vote to accept the police in Northern Ireland, it seems almost certain that there will be an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly on March 7. With both Sinn Fein and the DUP ditching some core principles to sign up to powersharing with one another, and with no significant force on the extreme side of either party at this point, the interesting thing will be the candidates running, on either side, on an extreme rejectionist platform.

I'd like to hold off a little to see who is likely to be nominated where before passing judgement on the unionist side, but on the Republican side things seem a little clearer. Therefore, below the fold, here are my predictions for the strongest bests for an anti-Adams/McGuinness, dissident Republican breakthrough in the 2007 elections.




Tier 1
Fermanagh/S Tyrone - an prominent candidate in place in Gerry McGeown, a large Republican vote to begin with, and a certain tradition of non-aligned Republicans from Frank Maguire to Dessie McPhilips. However, it has a significantly smaller Republican vote to play with than other constituencies; McGeown will probably need to pull off about a third of previous Sinn Fein voters to win.

Newry and Armagh - whatever the boys in Sevastopol Street might like to think, Hyland has deep roots in Newry Town, having topped the poll there three times in a row. South Armagh has plenty of people disillusioned with the Adams/McGuinness view of Republicanism as well. The weakness of traditional Republicanism in the Armagh half of the constituency, where he has shallow roots anyway, might be Hyland’s achilles heel though. Sinn Fein performed poorly here until the 1994 ceasefire, not usually a sign of deep traditional republican values, and while former INLA hunger-striker John Nixon can usually poll close 10% in Armagh City, this might be more of a personal vote than an anti-Adams one.

Mid Ulster - South Derry and East Tyrone are heartlands of traditional revanchist Republicanism and the resignation of two Assembly members - John Kelly and Geraldine Dougan - in recent years shows how deep the disquiet with the Adams/McGuinness direction goes here. Paul McGlinchey has been mentioned as a possible dissident candidate here and his family name would undoubtedly carry weight with some republicans, especially in South Derry. Places like Pomeroy, Galbally and Coalisland have their share of true believers as well and with an existing SF vote close to 50% this is arguably the best opportunity for the dissidents to win an Assembly seat.

Tier 2
West Tyrone - Dominic McGlinchey Jr has been mentioned as a possible anti candidate here but his name would carry less weight here than in South Derry. Although the Sinn Fein vote starts at 40% or so here, similar to the level in Fermanagh, the lack of a strong candidate and the relative paucity of genuinely hard-core Republican areas in this area, outside Carrickmore and a few estates in Omagh and Strabane, forces me to rank it lower in winnability for the dissidents. There seems to have been few resignations from Sinn Fein as well.

West Belfast - on paper this should have the strongest possible base for dissidents to build on but facts on the ground dictate differently. So far, there is no strong candidate for dissidents to rally round, this is Adams’ heartland and Sinn Fein are supremely well organised in nuts-and-bolts election mechanics in this constituency. Also, the realities of living in high-crime West Belfast seems to pushing many local republicans into accepting the police even if it falls well short of their personal wishes. If there is a genuine anti-SF wave within Republicanism the dissidents will pick up a seat here easily. But that’s a big, big if at this stage.

Foyle - Peggy O’Hara, mother of ‘successful’ INLA hunger striker Patsy will be standing here for the IRSP and is probably a good candidate for pulling at republican guilt-strings. However, Derry has never been quite as strong Sinn Fein and IRA territory as popular conception would hold (starting with an SF base vote of 33%). With the SDLP’s 3 seats and the DUP seat all looking very safe, the dissidents would probably need to pull in very close to a quota, or around 40% of the existing Republican vote, to be in with a chance here. A more interesting question might be if Eamonn McCann stands, would a fragmented Republican vote increase his chance of sneaking a seat.

Tier Three
North Belfast - there is no figurehead for anti-agreement Republicans to unite around here, the small group of IRSP activists who obtained a spectacular 50 votes here in 1998 are a bit of a joke, and the crime argument might even apply more strongly here than in West Belfast. Still, North Belfast has a history of producing odd, fractured election results and there are certainly annoyed Republicans here, especially in Ardoyne. Therefore, it would be a mistake to rule entirely out the possibility of them winning in an anti-policing wave but it’s far from likely. The only majority Protestant constituency where dissidents have even a remote chance.

South Down - even though resigned Newry and Mourne mayor Martin Connolly comes from this area, this is not an area with a particularly strong Republican tradition. SF polled some derisory votes here pre-ceasefire and are still comfortably beaten by the SDLP. Still, it’s a constituency with a hefty Catholic majority and a reasonable Sinn Fein vote, so in a genuine wave it might be interesting. Unlikely though.

The also rans

Where there are probably enough votes to make it worth the dissidents' while standing: East Derry, North Antrim, South Antrim, Upper Bann.

Where they would poll badly: Lagan Valley, South Belfast, East Belfast, East Antrim.

Where they would probably not get 10 people to sign their nomination forms: Strangford, North Down.